National Real Estate Market Update - Week of August 4, 2025

💬 Quote of the Week

“Every exit is an entrance somewhere else.”
— Tom Stoppard, English dramatist

🏡 National Market Snapshot

Pending Home Sales saw a slight dip in June, but the National Association of Realtors remains optimistic, pointing to a recent uptick in mortgage applications — a trend that shows no signs of slowing.

Home price appreciation continues to cool off:

• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for May dropped 0.3% — its fourth monthly decline.

• The FHFA House Price Index, which tracks homes with conforming loans, also slipped 0.2%.

Still, prices are up year-over-year, showing market resilience.

Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist remains bullish, noting that “continued economic growth, moderating house prices, and rising inventory bodes well for buyers and sellers alike.”

📉 Weekly Market Recap: Bad Jobs, Big Reactions

Markets stumbled last week, driven largely by a weaker-than-expected jobs report:

• Only 73,000 new payrolls were added in July.

• Even worse, previous months were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs, meaning a net loss of 185,000 jobs for the month.

Despite broader economic indicators pointing in a positive direction — such as 3.0% GDP growth in Q2, rising consumer spending and income, and falling inflation — investors focused on jobs data and sold off stocks:

• Dow: -2.9% (43,589)

• S&P 500: -2.4% (6,238)

• Nasdaq: -2.2% (20,650)

On the upside, that freed-up capital flowed into bonds, nudging up prices. Mortgage rates slightly dipped, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. (Reminder: mortgage rates can move quickly — always check with your lender for real-time quotes.)

🔍 Did You Know?

Realtor.com reports active listings rose 23.7% year-over-year last week — marking the 90th consecutive week of annual inventory growth.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

Here’s what’s on deck:

• MBA Mortgage Applications: Will purchase loan activity remain above 2024 levels?

• ISM Services Index: Expected to reflect growth in the economy’s dominant sector.

• Jobless Claims: Forecast to stay well below recession territory.

🏦 Federal Reserve Watch: Rate Cuts Ahead?

Wall Street is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as soon as next month:

FOMC Meeting	Projected Fed Funds Rate	Probability of Change
Sept 17	4.00%–4.25%	86.3%
Oct 29	3.75%–4.00%	69.2%
Dec 10	3.50%–3.75%	51.9%

Current rate: 4.25%–4.50%

💼 Business Tip of the Week

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Nathan Tallo is a trusted lender in the Greater Baton Rouge area